Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48657e3c2c2fc7961680efad7d89ab9fc0cf627fd8ae67fee0c8ec2464963e47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 54c | 25,819$13,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,840.95 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 16,487$7,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,563.99 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 14,058$6,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,537.56 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 53c | 13,907$7,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,561.18 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 6,382$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.3 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 46c | 1,407$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.86 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Under | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea1…9569backed Under | 51c | 987.92$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 534.56$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.24 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Under | 46c | 479.59$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 56c | 432.05$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.1 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 54c | 369.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 290.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 188 | 51.6%97 W · 91 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 46c | 124$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Over | 55c | 70.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…8b61backed Over | 55c | 67.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb8…846ebacked Over | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Under | 46c | 34.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Over | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Under | 46c | 28.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.6wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…c3eebacked Over | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Over | 53c | 24.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…ebfebacked Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 159.5this page
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall Thundering Herd won
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 158.5Over won
- Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 160.5Over won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-17.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-18.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.