WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4869c8a3f71fb7323e8606732d284611b744ca69fb3ddefdb348edb19b6d95ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Indiana Fever, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 8,670$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.97 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 55c | 4,861$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183.33 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed PortlandFire | 56c | 2,091$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.87 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Indiana Fever | 58c | 2,075$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.81 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 1,991$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.43 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed PortlandFire | 56c | 1,750$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.81 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 42c | 1,690$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.85 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed PortlandFire | 56c | 1,178$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.82 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 1,117$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.87 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed PortlandFire | 54c | 924.92$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 44c | 814.14$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.59 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed PortlandFire | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed PortlandFire | 56c | 699.89$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.72 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked PortlandFire | 57c | 533$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed PortlandFire | 57c | 521.26$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked PortlandFire | 57c | 331.1$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.69 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed PortlandFire | 57c | 234.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed PortlandFire | 57c | 215.58$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Indiana Fever | 58c | 120.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed PortlandFire | 54c | 96.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 45c | 95.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…e155backed PortlandFire | 57c | 55.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed PortlandFire | 56c | 52.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed PortlandFire | 56c | 52.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Indiana Fever | 40c | 46.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 36.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed PortlandFire | 53c | 31.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed PortlandFire | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked PortlandFire | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Indiana Fever | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda1…7b5ebacked PortlandFire | 56c | 19.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.