WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c316e0694bc7843373bf3aa56bfd50ff0920a0fe5acbc789916e26319fe19b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PortlandFireof Indiana Fever, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed PortlandFire | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.97 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 9,320$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed PortlandFire | 47c | 3,970$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.7 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 2,793$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.12 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 2,009$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,105.05 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed PortlandFire | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed PortlandFire | 45c | 1,287$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.99 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed PortlandFire | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 726.99$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed PortlandFire | 45c | 450.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.69 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 53c | 280.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 262.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed PortlandFire | 47c | 131.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked PortlandFire | 48c | 87.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed PortlandFire | 45c | 62.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed PortlandFire | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked PortlandFire | 45c | 22.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Indiana Fever | 55c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.