WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb905013641503c9b749338315cd5aad6c16cfd18e5c456fe2e5bc40dafb66c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 53c | 6,500$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 47c | 3,513$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.77 | 214 | 46.3%99 W · 115 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 52c | 2,391$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.94 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,877$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.84 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 48c | 1,776$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.75 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 47c | 1,136$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.29 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 50c | 619$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 50c | 618$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 314.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.39 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 157.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Under | 53c | 138.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 107.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under | 21c | 57.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 36.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 48c | 33.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5this page
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFirePortlandFire won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire: O/U 175.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-10.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-11.5)PortlandFire won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5)PortlandFire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.