China Taiwan · resolved market
Trump x Xi talk before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48883420a599e9de1eb80eebe704c22638c90d99073aee96beb741a3ca2862ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,906$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 15c | 999.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 851.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 832.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…e1dcbacked Yes | 16c | 629.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 17c | 589.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe448…f5cbbacked Yes | 3c | 452.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes | 13c | 407.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 279.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdb…e7f7backed Yes | 24c | 192.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…87c4backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…1eb4backed Yes | 12c | 164$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…d18dbacked Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 152.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 73c | 127.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…3ee1backed Yes | 8c | 125.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…3959backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc829…170dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…a279backed Yes | 12c | 121.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 14c | 107.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d85…a385backed Yes | 25c | 100.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3a…47bebacked Yes | 15c | 89.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 15c | 87.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 14c | 80.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 19c | 73.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.