NBA · resolved market
Will Lebron announce he's retiring Tuesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4897bb59cb103f9c680fdefb7fd1199d2452c5adcd16beea780cd6fe7004c3db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 30.5%32 W · 73 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…8811backed Yes | 7c | 8,246$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…1858backed Yes | 2c | 8,063$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,710$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…12bfbacked Yes | 6c | 6,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d5…992ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,728$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…29abbacked Yes | 6c | 2,670$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x651a…b898backed Yes | 8c | 2,281$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…02d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,139$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0f…c8aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…a7cbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,665$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,020$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 212 | 43.4%92 W · 120 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1407backed Yes | 13c | 989.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8243…15bfbacked Yes | 27c | 729.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295a…60bebacked Yes | 9c | 676.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…bb02backed Yes | 9c | 567.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 262 | 33.6%88 W · 174 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…50efbacked Yes | 7c | 409.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed No | 65c | 399.43$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…b96dbacked Yes | 6c | 343.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…8c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853f…6a0ebacked Yes | 4c | 229.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…bc8abacked Yes | 13c | 154.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a99…9306backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…3f3bbacked Yes | 8c | 135.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c21…a0e9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lebron announce he's retiring Tuesday? this page
- Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? No won
- Will Lebron announce he is returning to Cavaliers Tuesday? No won
- Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?Yes won
- Will Lebron announce trade or trade request Tuesday? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.