Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48b74bead56e1a53cbbcb090155ffca5f526f4f18facce70bd4a6c4ee49dc4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 74c | 1,200$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.32 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 619.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.83 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 26c | 384.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 74c | 268$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 243.57$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 21c | 242.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 205.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 145.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 75c | 140.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.06 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 76c | 132.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 129.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4c…2918backed Yes | 31c | 111.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 100.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 95.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 31c | 87.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 78.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 75.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 70.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 67.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 74c | 67.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 63.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 55c | 54.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 45.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 45.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 67c | 45.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 67c | 44.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 31c | 44.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 35c | 41.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 75c | 38.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 33.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 75c | 29.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 69c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.