Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Navone (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48cab5e96f1583b9542b79262dd9b585629438cb6891164dc6cfdb719e3c27b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Molcanof Navone, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Molcan | 50c | 1,217$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.68 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Navone | 52c | 1,080$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.33 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Molcan | 55c | 998.81$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.06 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Navone | 50c | 740.1$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.96 | 465 | 53.8%250 W · 215 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Navone | 49c | 592.95$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.83 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Molcan | 54c | 543.27$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.31 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Navone | 44c | 439.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.28 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Navone | 50c | 357.17$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Molcan | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Molcan | 51c | 122.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Molcan | 22c | 104.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Molcan | 56c | 103.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 556 | 60.3%335 W · 221 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Molcan | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Molcan | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Navone | 50c | 96.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Navone | 50c | 89.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…d613backed Navone | 50c | 89.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Molcan | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Molcan | 38c | 72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Molcan | 54c | 64.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Molcan | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Navone | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Navone | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…ef4abacked Navone | 46c | 35.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Navone | 45c | 27.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Molcan | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Molcan | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Molcan | 66c | 16.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Navone (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)this page
- Alex Molcan vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Bucharest Open: Alex Molcan vs Mariano NavoneMariano Navone won
- Molcan vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Molcan vs NavoneMolcan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.