Fifa International · resolved market
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d4f8579a8a5fe30f34d8ea34ab5f3f6c00a4724534aa02fe747cc0695e958c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 5c | 1,984$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,373$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83d…826fbacked Yes | 4c | 754$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…b82bbacked Yes | 4c | 733.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes | 4c | 704.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 300 | 32.3%97 W · 203 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…5984backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 18.4%36 W · 160 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 4c | 295$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fed…0d36backed Yes | 5c | 212$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0e…38bbbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 235 | 29.8%70 W · 165 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…be19backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 12.1%39 W · 284 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 46 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ goalsthis page
- Anthony Gordon: 1+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 2+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 3+ goalsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Anthony Gordon: 4+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ assistsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 1+ shotsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 2+ goalsNo won
- Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 1+ goalsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 3+ goalsNo won
- Eberechi Eze: 3+ shotsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes won
- Harry Kane: 2+ assistsNo won
- Harry Kane: 2+ goalsYes won
- Harry Kane: 3+ goalsNo won
- Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ivan Toney: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 2+ shotsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 3+ shotsYes won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jude Bellingham: 4+ shotsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 1+ shotsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 2+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 3+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Rashford: 3+ shotsYes won
- Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 2+ goalsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 3+ goalsNo won
- Morgan Rogers: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ assistsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 1+ goalsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 2+ goalsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 3+ goalsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 3+ shotsNo won
- Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ollie Watkins: 3+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.