Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d7e7823ba4e3d49c37b2f3b3688da66968f46cc51aefe60f2aa6fd638680a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Zheng
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,755 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Zheng | 22c | 7,560$1,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.8 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Zheng | 1c | 3,818$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Sabalenka | 66c | 2,000$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.8 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Zheng | 28c | 1,320$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Zheng | 27c | 767.58$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.44 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Sabalenka | 72c | 694.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.72 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Zheng | 33c | 425.32$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Sabalenka | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Sabalenka | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 109 | 62.4%68 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Sabalenka | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sabalenka | 63c | 224.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Zheng | 22c | 208.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Zheng | 37c | 203.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Zheng | 6c | 187.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…3ad3backed Sabalenka | 67c | 160.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Sabalenka | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ec…ab04backed Zheng | 38c | 131.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa778…c3f7backed Zheng | 45c | 127.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc83…215cbacked Sabalenka | 69c | 101.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Zheng | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 287 | 54%155 W · 132 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ab…cda4backed Sabalenka | 68c | 73.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Zheng | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sabalenka | 62c | 39.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Zheng | 32c | 36.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Sabalenka | 62c | 27.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…b346backed Sabalenka | 67c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5)this page
- Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen ZhengAryna Sabalenka won
- Sabalenka vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs ZhengSabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.