Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb6450596affbead42dc2a1d90df8ca6eae482351129bca85f495b056697b13

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Aryna Sabalenkaof Aryna Sabalenka, Qinwen Zheng
Resolved: Mar 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $564,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,987 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	101,212$13,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,157.62	567	57.1%324 W · 243 L	+13.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	51,516$7,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,170.28	761	40.6%309 W · 452 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Qinwen Zheng	4c	40,649$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.04	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe63e…525abacked Qinwen Zheng	9c	22,418$2,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,117	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9367…f6bebacked Qinwen Zheng	3c	19,518$682 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$682	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Qinwen Zheng	9c	16,663$1,522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,521.85	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Qinwen Zheng	15c	14,526$2,164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,164.34	785	36.1%283 W · 502 L	+36.6wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Qinwen Zheng	2c	12,830$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.01	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Qinwen Zheng	17c	11,284$1,918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,918.34	136	31.6%43 W · 93 L	-11.7wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Qinwen Zheng	5c	10,027$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	6,444$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,031.08	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+16%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Qinwen Zheng	5c	6,243$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.55	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Qinwen Zheng	5c	6,150$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.33	661	39.3%260 W · 401 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Qinwen Zheng	17c	6,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	104	40.4%42 W · 62 L	+6.3wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	5,999$780 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.85	121	47.1%57 W · 64 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Qinwen Zheng	6c	5,380$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.99	1,265	29.2%370 W · 895 L	-13.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	5,134$707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.36	198	35.4%70 W · 128 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d58…1aeabacked Qinwen Zheng	15c	5,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.99	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Qinwen Zheng	1c	4,840$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.56	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d80…ba3dbacked Qinwen Zheng	15c	4,441$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.14	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Qinwen Zheng	15c	4,430$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.12	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Qinwen Zheng	13c	3,850$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.5	131	35.9%47 W · 84 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	3,755$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.78	52	23.1%12 W · 40 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	33cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd50f…4034backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	3,569$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.01	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked Qinwen Zheng	15c	3,337$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.56	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+46.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a73…e1adbacked Qinwen Zheng	6c	2,542$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	158	26.6%42 W · 116 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeba4…69fbbacked Qinwen Zheng	13c	2,278$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.12	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	+2.8wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Qinwen Zheng	4c	2,248$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.92	6,599	50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L	+259.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	2,164$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.25	123	22%27 W · 96 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	1,994$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.21	2,462	38.5%948 W · 1,514 L	+93.1wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Qinwen Zheng	5c	1,924$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.49	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	1,800$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	3,871	35%1,353 W · 2,518 L	+92.5wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Qinwen Zheng	16c	1,800$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	469	32%150 W · 319 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Qinwen Zheng	13c	1,780$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.91	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Qinwen Zheng	1c	1,710$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	83	31.3%26 W · 57 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Qinwen Zheng	8c	1,320$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.4	619	24.4%151 W · 468 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Qinwen Zheng	7c	1,313$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.62	140	28.6%40 W · 100 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	1,238$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.37	1,090	35.9%391 W · 699 L	+16.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	1,154$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Qinwen Zheng	13c	1,154$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	72	38.9%28 W · 44 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5281…be82backed Qinwen Zheng	6c	832.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab0…b46abacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	818.93$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.2	237	35%83 W · 154 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Qinwen Zheng	6c	806$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	287	24.4%70 W · 217 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa778…c3f7backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	656.25$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Qinwen Zheng	15c	606.82$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.52	1,973	46.3%914 W · 1,059 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Qinwen Zheng	4c	602.68$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31dd…7159backed Qinwen Zheng	10c	600$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	903	40.2%363 W · 540 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	464.29$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	360	38.9%140 W · 220 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	435.46$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.41	55	47.3%26 W · 29 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…9f40backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	428.57$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	229	49.8%114 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…ab21backed Qinwen Zheng	6c	417.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2628…757bbacked Qinwen Zheng	5c	411.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	385.02$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	868	35.4%307 W · 561 L	+22.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Qinwen Zheng	5c	343.61$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd473…84e4backed Qinwen Zheng	6c	341.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Qinwen Zheng	6c	331.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	819	33.1%271 W · 548 L	-30.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Qinwen Zheng	10c	318.62$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.96	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Qinwen Zheng	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	242	59.9%145 W · 97 L	-12.1wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	138	26.1%36 W · 102 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Qinwen Zheng	7c	303.04$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.21	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…c629backed Qinwen Zheng	6c	260$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	235.71$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	518	49.4%256 W · 262 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Qinwen Zheng	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	113	31%35 W · 78 L	-11.2wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-38%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ec7…8c25backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	230.76$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac94…e414backed Qinwen Zheng	15c	225.31$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Qinwen Zheng	14c	218$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	203	36%73 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Qinwen Zheng	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Qinwen Zheng	12c	199.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	1,245	51.9%646 W · 599 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Qinwen Zheng	13c	177.06$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.19	237	50.6%120 W · 117 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Qinwen Zheng	13c	175.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	227	47.6%108 W · 119 L	+14.9wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x797e…fc29backed Qinwen Zheng	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	125$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.08	347	44.4%154 W · 193 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Qinwen Zheng	12c	124.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Qinwen Zheng	15c	117.65$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	104.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	316	43%136 W · 180 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0a…7858backed Qinwen Zheng	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9483…804ebacked Qinwen Zheng	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	155	14.2%22 W · 133 L	-27.4wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Qinwen Zheng	17c	96.25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	363	33.9%123 W · 240 L	-12.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…80a7backed Qinwen Zheng	17c	86.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-82%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Qinwen Zheng	16c	68.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Qinwen Zheng	16c	66.29$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	135	52.6%71 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Qinwen Zheng	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	908	54.5%495 W · 413 L	+21.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa26…564fbacked Qinwen Zheng	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	73	56.2%41 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zhengthis page
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Sabalenka vs. Zheng: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs ZhengSabalenka won
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Zheng (+1.5)Sabalenka won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event