La Liga · resolved market
Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f5f144d349a4637dcf7f62099bfa25da4e4bf464195e0b841a4fc8371767db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 2,115$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.85 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 24c | 1,249$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Under | 74c | 945.95$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.95 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 28c | 551$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 26c | 530.53$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.94 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 7c | 527$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 458 | 41%188 W · 270 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 74c | 351.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 72c | 312.01$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 272.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 72c | 231.55$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 71c | 158.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +6.5wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 26c | 125.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 29c | 102.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 227 | 29.1%66 W · 161 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 74c | 93.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…dfe0backed Under | 74c | 70.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 74c | 40.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 74c | 27.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked Under | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Deportivo Alavés won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.