La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37e99f422be39155fe2ec28c4f343468bf9e54976efcf4a307d91d11728150d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo Alavésof Villarreal CF, Deportivo Alavés
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,416 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 20,707$16,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,498.89 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Villarreal CF | 22c | 19,141$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,203.77 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 12,738$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,860.84 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 8,864$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.46 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 4,569$3,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.94 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 2,522$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.17 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 2,006$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.3 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Villarreal CF | 21c | 1,397$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 1,364$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Villarreal CF | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Villarreal CF | 23c | 928.75$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.26 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Deportivo Alavés | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Villarreal CF | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…2de3backed Deportivo Alavés | 76c | 296$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc712…9d80backed Villarreal CF | 24c | 296$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…ca12backed Villarreal CF | 23c | 292.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…5dedbacked Deportivo Alavés | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 270$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 204 | 49.5%101 W · 103 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Villarreal CF | 23c | 258.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Villarreal CF | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Villarreal CF | 20c | 211.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Villarreal CF | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a5…b220backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…ebf7backed Villarreal CF | 22c | 124.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 111.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 102.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Villarreal CF | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Villarreal CF | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Villarreal CF | 21c | 71.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Villarreal CF | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Villarreal CF | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 95 | 71.6%68 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Deportivo Alavés | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Deportivo Alavés | 77c | 49.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 43.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4d…398dbacked Deportivo Alavés | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 27.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…013fbacked Deportivo Alavés | 78c | 26.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9224…7807backed Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked Deportivo Alavés | 80c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Deportivo Alavés vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Deportivo Alavés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.