College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4930fd5ade9c6a6ed36a1396f977b7378996ff6c8e9abf7fd9cb63378bd558f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Florida Gatorsof Texas, Florida Gators
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Florida Gators | 56c | 1,800$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Texas | 42c | 1,510$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.12 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Texas | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Texas | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Texas | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2626…93abbacked Florida Gators | 58c | 280$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Texas | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…6638backed Texas | 48c | 134.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Florida Gators | 52c | 127.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Florida Gators | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Texas | 49c | 79.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Texas | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Florida Gators | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Florida Gators | 52c | 43.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…a77dbacked Texas | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…8c92backed Texas | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -8.1wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…e064backed Texas | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac2…3ba5backed Texas | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-6.5)this page
- O/U 42.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-5.5)Florida Gators won
- Texas vs. Florida GatorsFlorida Gators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.