Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493a536be6c32e03f97ff773e3ca6adc28860bbbe086ff0235310c8291debdcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9cd…453cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,739$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 66c | 1,316$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 38c | 389.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 33c | 332$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 286.93$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 41c | 283.46$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.99 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 60c | 282.17$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2561…d456backed No | 77c | 206$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 187$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 75c | 186.32$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 175.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 40c | 153$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Yes | 33c | 150.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 25c | 116$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 106$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 105.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…411fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed Yes | 44c | 94.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 53c | 77.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 43c | 76.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed Yes | 42c | 75.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 54c | 68.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 65.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 45c | 60.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…3322backed Yes | 31c | 52.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 29c | 50.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 62c | 50.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…9611backed Yes | 36c | 46.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…40e6backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 49c | 43.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…3012backed No | 66c | 36.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a3…8414backed Yes | 43c | 35.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…562dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68b…df8bbacked No | 66c | 27.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 61c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5963backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on December 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.