Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x772f23e96d3bdd4ff1c239d9baa78407a61e2dd1da8ec9b328d278b5e2d586d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 62c | 319.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 25c | 249.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 76c | 233$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…3facbacked Yes | 78c | 192.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed No | 22c | 191.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 74c | 184.89$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 67c | 183.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 147 | 19.7%29 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 65c | 158.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 65c | 146.6$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 52c | 139.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6e…02cfbacked Yes | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…411fbacked Yes | 78c | 127.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 30c | 124.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 23c | 118.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 56c | 107.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 66c | 106$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 104.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 25c | 94.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d96cbacked Yes | 65c | 92.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b7…e34bbacked Yes | 65c | 91.11$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 30c | 88.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49e…5110backed No | 22c | 76.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec2…8ff4backed Yes | 65c | 76.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe353…d040backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 64.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…a45dbacked Yes | 48c | 64.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 47c | 50.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ec…deb6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…d520backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed No | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…5de3backed No | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2879…b4b2backed Yes | 66c | 44.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 59c | 42.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…5c8abacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…7f99backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5222…d2f6backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…562dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked Yes | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…bb08backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…1f0abacked Yes | 66c | 22.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…2209backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…7efdbacked Yes | 65c | 19.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1013…5aecbacked Yes | 67c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on December 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on December 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.