Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4954dfdb44cb4e8af46d9f13f5424b3af86ac6c8c34592fda3735e79506b6c9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Virginia Cavaliers, Northwestern Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $976,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,420,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $976,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Virginia Cavaliers | 61c | 408,027$249,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158,122.74 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 40c | 246,579$98,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,866.12 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 36c | 60,000$21,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,800 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Northwestern Wildcats | 39c | 52,740$20,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,312.27 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 38c | 40,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Northwestern Wildcats | 39c | 27,844$10,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,882.67 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Northwestern Wildcats | 33c | 20,002$6,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Northwestern Wildcats | 37c | 18,067$6,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,684.79 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Northwestern Wildcats | 32c | 10,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Northwestern Wildcats | 42c | 5,205$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200.19 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Northwestern Wildcats | 40c | 3,431$1,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.8 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Northwestern Wildcats | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Northwestern Wildcats | 38c | 1,598$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.68 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…53fabacked Northwestern Wildcats | 38c | 592.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Northwestern Wildcats | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Northwestern Wildcats | 40c | 309.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Northwestern Wildcats | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Virginia Cavaliers | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Northwestern Wildcats | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d1…f7f2backed Northwestern Wildcats | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Northwestern Wildcats | 40c | 31.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Virginia Cavaliers | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Virginia CavaliersVirginia Cavaliers won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 146.5Over won
- Northwestern Wildcats vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 147.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.