Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4958003fbba0f35dc5d794a73a84cab72fe3c88284ce30639783d0e4a8f6df2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 374.56$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 342.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 337.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 286.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 286.12$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 170.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 27c | 135.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 130$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 96.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 33c | 85.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 83.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 80.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 69.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 33c | 58.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 66c | 51.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 39c | 48.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 29c | 45.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 35c | 45.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 44.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 66c | 44.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 37c | 43.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 43.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 77c | 41.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 34.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 30c | 33.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 34c | 29.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 29.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 28.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 68c | 28.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.