Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224ce6b068af30713fafe4ef19b38041851d2e1c5e31c708771ffabf8ac8707b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 8c | 450.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 336.23$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 22c | 331.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 324.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 307.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.57 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 297.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 73c | 269.86$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd04…dbfbbacked No | 59c | 180.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 167.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 23c | 119.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 98.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 50c | 96.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 65c | 95.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 65c | 92.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 67c | 87.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 80.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…4512backed No | 63c | 76.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes | 43c | 65.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 60c | 61.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 51.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 49.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 48.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…eacdbacked Yes | 40c | 47.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 45.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 44.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 33c | 40.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…64b6backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 39.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 50c | 38.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 38.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 60c | 35.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed No | 54c | 35.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 50c | 30.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 45c | 24.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 65c | 20.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 62c | 20.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.