Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4967472b9c7a3a126f5d514e695a74c5be89ae2598f740deb0ccb56e5561a500
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 9c | 467.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 217.83$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 190.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 31c | 133$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 69c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 113.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 40c | 94.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 91.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 89.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 87.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 32c | 76.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 74.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed Yes | 31c | 73.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 73.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 65.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 68c | 61.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…436abacked Yes | 33c | 61.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 60.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 29c | 58.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 34c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 57.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 51.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 51.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 50.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 68c | 47.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 46.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 69c | 44.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…f935backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 67c | 39.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 71c | 35.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 32.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 27.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…ffa4backed No | 69c | 22.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 68c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed No | 69c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 19.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 69c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 72c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…4dedbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.