Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3665cd2f9605a64937ecdfc104297ce261a78fc8541d45fccbbca0833eb9367d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 419.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 57c | 344.81$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 305.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 45c | 242.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.07 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 224.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 203.36$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 189.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 57c | 189.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.62 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 156.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed No | 11c | 153.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 149.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 44c | 149.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 121.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 118.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 111.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 92.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 91.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 82.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 61c | 81.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 44c | 79.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 43c | 76.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 47c | 72.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 41c | 70.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 65.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 65.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 63.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 63.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 45c | 59.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 29c | 55.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 44c | 50.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 48.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 45c | 47.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 44.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 54c | 44.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 57c | 42.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 41.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 52c | 39.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked Yes | 45c | 32.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b6…0d76backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 46c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 42c | 28.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 43c | 24.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 20.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 55c | 18.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 57c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 17.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.