MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4969e9e7b1f81bbd740b1d64ad7e764b4dc387c63ae8032105bdcd99d0f7c945
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 47c | 5,809$2,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,086.55 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 4,946$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,621.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 53c | 3,764$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.93 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 3,390$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.73 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a3…1943backed Under | 50c | 2,293$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 49c | 2,040$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.39 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Under | 80c | 1,482$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.05 | 24 | 91.7%22 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 1,102$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.88 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.99 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…c230backed Under | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 6c | 900$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 787.6$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 740.18$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.7 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 50c | 685.55$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.83 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 2c | 653.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 49c | 614.07$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.06 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Under | 58c | 535.86$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.46per pick | 59cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Under | 50c | 534.5$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.25 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 3c | 524.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 50c | 485$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 52c | 479.88$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.54 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 52c | 470.94$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 52c | 470.94$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.89 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 6c | 450$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Over | 48c | 448.73$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.34 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 424.52$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.51 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 67c | 367.92$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 50c | 301.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 297.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 293.01$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Over | 49c | 249.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 51c | 212.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 210.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 19c | 186.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 49c | 183.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Over | 15c | 120.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 54c | 110.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 98.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed Under | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 47c | 66.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 47c | 57.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 48c | 52.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 49.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 31c | 45.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 44.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 46c | 43.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 51c | 43.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 63c | 40.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 217 | 46.5%101 W · 116 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 48c | 37.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 38c | 31.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Over | 50c | 31.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 50c | 27.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 47c | 26.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 50c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over | 50c | 22.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6c…35bbbacked Under | 53c | 22.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 52c | 20.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…d5cdbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 19.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.