NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49733643bde4ff9f73b453d49659656a298c9ba26df251e91fbce60384884694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.97 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 53c | 2,348$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.55 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 55c | 1,282$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.09 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 67c | 762.16$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.76 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 33c | 750$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Over | 44c | 498.52$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Under | 44c | 407$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 290.14$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 55c | 263$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 45c | 263$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.35 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 259.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 45c | 229$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 47c | 219.15$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Over | 51c | 215.19$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 44c | 214.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a8…95b7backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 47c | 204.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 59c | 172.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 45c | 170.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 170.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 45c | 162.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Under | 49c | 162.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 68c | 107.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Under | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 75.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Under | 53c | 66.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 59c | 65.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 61.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bc…ec35backed Under | 55c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 49.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 56c | 43.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 43.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 35c | 41.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 47c | 36.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 53c | 32.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…cdc0backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…25efbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…0a81backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…596dbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf535…06ccbacked Over | 45c | 24.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81f…034fbacked Over | 45c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…2a97backed Over | 45c | 24.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a94fbacked Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…bdbabacked Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…972cbacked Over | 46c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…a0d8backed Under | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd8…f96dbacked Over | 45c | 22.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e9…8768backed Over | 45c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43aa…ab59backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd111…5fe8backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 49c | 21.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. AvalancheGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Under won
- Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.