Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498b8dd4290ff77b38128a562be6e538a6ae3b25651c1ac2c971aed71dd15f4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,901 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 27c | 3,686$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 2,931$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.48 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 79c | 1,260$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 857.43$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 19c | 790.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 631.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 21c | 617$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 77c | 387.24$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 76c | 352$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…843bbacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076b…dbfabacked No | 79c | 299.98$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 151.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 108.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 24c | 102.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 79c | 99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 80c | 81.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 25c | 74.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 39c | 66.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 80c | 60.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…8644backed Yes | 24c | 45.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 37.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 34.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 79c | 30.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked No | 76c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…cb95backed Yes | 46c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 77c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.