Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23de5c2ddab306c957a607be369ae1fd53cebf1d37f14e98775cb419771855f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 36c | 15,719$5,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,659 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 9,331$6,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.76 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 3,822$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.89 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 64c | 3,286$2,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.84 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 77c | 714$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.04 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 553.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 36c | 536.01$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.96 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 73c | 532.63$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 39c | 522.35$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.29 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 501.43$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 63c | 400.95$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 35c | 377.68$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 30c | 335.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 329.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 54c | 252.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 228.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 181.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 74c | 164.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 24c | 144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbe…f9e5backed Yes | 26c | 116.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 19c | 86.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb4…1eb1backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 56c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 31c | 66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 63c | 53.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 50.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 27c | 49.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 46.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 44.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 36c | 35.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 30.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…e07dbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 65c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Yes | 68c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.