Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498e7d8aef6d0a6b5e6cdb79dd205d242166bfa98db8417e9ab242824ff62ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 78c | 364.34$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…76d7backed Yes | 79c | 345.23$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 69c | 333.14$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 26c | 302.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 57c | 302.16$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 72c | 244.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 75c | 194.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 65c | 191.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 169.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 70c | 166.72$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 165.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 12c | 146$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 68c | 141.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 136.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec8…c23cbacked No | 34c | 124.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +633.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 66c | 106.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 69c | 104.57$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 18c | 103.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 97.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 89.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 35c | 83.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 73c | 76.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 36c | 72.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 42c | 56.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 32c | 55.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 55.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 68c | 54.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 49.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 68c | 48.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 23c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 78c | 37.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 30c | 34.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 34c | 32.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 31.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 66c | 29.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 68c | 29.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 52c | 27.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…fe1bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 65c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 76c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 63c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e99…9584backed Yes | 58c | 24.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…ef70backed No | 63c | 23.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 72c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 18.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 72c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.