MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4997c501b195f6c40afccdb8ab079d169fbc6cf4a99ed261f8f814e19a99782a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Houston Astros | 50c | 7,281$3,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,652.45 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 4,001$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.18 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 2,453$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.7 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 2,070$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Houston Astros | 50c | 1,432$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.89 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 1,188$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.88 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Houston Astros | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 48c | 704.79$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 608$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.84 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 275$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 220$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Houston Astros | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…06cbbacked Houston Astros | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…03b8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 101.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Houston Astros | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 80.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Houston Astros | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee99…80e6backed Houston Astros | 51c | 79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…6b0fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Houston Astros | 47c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Houston Astros | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 41.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 40.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Houston Astros | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Houston Astros | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 29.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Houston Astros | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Houston Astros | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.