Champions League · resolved market
Will Flamengo vs. Chelsea end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49ae68d1a3866ce2f0f4246c5c59050b3f8c2b8bd45b0e1b086a3e323d080990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 30c | 8,043$2,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.23 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 70c | 2,341$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…047abacked Yes | 1c | 2,333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 34c | 1,742$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 27c | 1,649$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.31 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 27c | 1,600$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.17 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 73c | 1,562$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.74 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 75c | 1,170$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 1,057$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.11 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 66c | 1,006$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.08 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…4f6ebacked No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e58…195fbacked Yes | 26c | 990$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 34c | 877.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…8e59backed No | 74c | 720$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 54c | 705$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.5 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 590$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…11f8backed Yes | 27c | 545$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…b5babacked Yes | 27c | 545$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 71c | 531.83$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…a010backed Yes | 27c | 425$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…7423backed Yes | 27c | 425$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 70c | 363.72$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.86 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 72c | 348.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 68c | 343.05$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…d4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…0d3fbacked No | 74c | 280$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 71c | 107.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Yes | 56c | 68.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 34c | 65.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 75c | 59.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 29c | 37.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked No | 68c | 27.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…a3adbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Flamengo vs. Chelsea end in a draw?this page
- Will Chelsea beat Flamengo?No won
- Will Flamengo beat Chelsea?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.