South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-04-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c7cfd851d4397156233e35421f4431ede41a2ab18dc5f500595d69aae4c562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 22c | 5,168$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.49 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 2,140$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.19 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,638$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 23c | 1,431$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.06 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 79c | 1,171$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 23c | 999.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Yes | 14c | 693.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 15c | 638.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b29…556ebacked Yes | 8c | 590.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 32cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 552.21$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 22c | 449.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Yes | 13c | 291.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 77c | 270.88$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…38e7backed Yes | 11c | 258.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 8cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…0c65backed Yes | 19c | 252.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…7f8dbacked Yes | 16c | 173.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 15c | 172.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 172$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 11c | 163.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 77c | 127.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 77c | 127.26$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 77c | 123.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 77c | 110.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 77c | 110.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 77c | 110.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 77c | 110.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…7976backed Yes | 13c | 106.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 20c | 95.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd027…cc86backed Yes | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 22c | 54.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…6c25backed Yes | 24c | 50.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 25c | 45.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…e23ebacked No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 77c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Libertad win on 2026-04-15?this page
- Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15?Yes won
- Will Club Libertad vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.