Other European Leagues · resolved market
Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49da8d83dd3956e03d01815cc44ae2ac00f112cb55ee6d1cb11c456d51394bed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,942$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.81 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,547$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.84 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c6…4727backed Over | 42c | 1,279$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 826.48$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.06 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 586.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.95 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 361.75$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.78 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 58c | 265$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 42c | 265$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 248.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.51 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 53c | 184.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 45c | 182.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 256 | 41.4%106 W · 150 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 60c | 140.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 31c | 62.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 323 | 50.2%162 W · 161 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…0637backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 41c | 53.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 47c | 43.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 244 | 66%161 W · 83 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Over | 26c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 78c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 40.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Over | 34c | 40.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 45c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 559 | 54.9%307 W · 252 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 64c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 3.5this page
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5Over won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 1.5Over won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 2.5Over won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 4.5Over won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 5.5Under won
- Molde FK vs. Tromsø IL: Tromsø IL O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: Molde FK (-1.5)Tromsø IL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.