Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49fd470422298111afd751493a98354fec7608d72518bfbd1036a2ad3762b109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 1,643$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.94 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…40cfbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 688.24$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 135.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 58c | 100.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 50c | 99.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 67c | 89.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 59.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 565 | 45.5%257 W · 308 L | -24.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 70c | 53.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,319 | 56.7%748 W · 571 L | +64.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 29.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 70c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…1ad5backed No | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock vs. Kashiwa Reysol end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-04-19?Yes won
- Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.