Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2a3562306b2d958709ad71c214b3a9f872a1697cc7ff31f8f691b113f6831d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 1,861$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 1,724$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…ec67backed Yes | 2c | 746.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d6…ab3bbacked Yes | 4c | 463.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 349.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 48c | 332.51$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 256.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 162.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 140.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 139.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 75c | 139.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked No | 62c | 96.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…13a6backed No | 80c | 49.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 47.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 39c | 42.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 40c | 40.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 38.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 78c | 31.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 72c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 61c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked No | 70c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked Yes | 80c | 18.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 59c | 17.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 13.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 13.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.