Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3706b2509643d215c265876fb531b6af0f73e4073559e84f0e27e3b82c432d49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 9,961$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…04ebbacked No | 1c | 4,548$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 1c | 1,859$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 9c | 713.44$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 66c | 440.58$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 339.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 4c | 301.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 46c | 269.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 13c | 232.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 207.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 67c | 195.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 18c | 191.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.31 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 171.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 60c | 170.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 19c | 134.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 67c | 100.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 97.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 36c | 93.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 31c | 93.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 54c | 86.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…203abacked Yes | 57c | 84.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 59c | 81.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…7455backed Yes | 13c | 76.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 68c | 75.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 33c | 74.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.38 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 39c | 71.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 69c | 69.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…ec41backed Yes | 33c | 62.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 23c | 60.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 17c | 60.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 27c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 34c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed Yes | 45c | 50.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 50.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…713ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…0709backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…a718backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 49.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…89d8backed Yes | 31c | 46.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 51c | 44.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 44.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 55c | 43.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…1107backed Yes | 30c | 42.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked Yes | 66c | 40.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 73c | 40.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 38.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 55c | 37.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…bcd3backed No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 58c | 34.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf313…6bccbacked No | 46c | 30.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 54c | 29.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 63c | 29.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 65c | 27.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 46c | 22.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x297c…0f89backed No | 64c | 16.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 13.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.