Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Fils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a40ef8deb9035b108a5f2bd8da4a96c0dccb986ef155721580bfccbed93c047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Rublev, Fils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd85a…1d03backed Rublev | 76c | 515.77$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.35 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fils | 61c | 336.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.27 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Fils | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rublev | 48c | 291.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.21 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rublev | 36c | 285.68$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fils | 50c | 267.27$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rublev | 42c | 266.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Fils | 65c | 257.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…bf0bbacked Rublev | 39c | 247.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Rublev | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Fils | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Fils | 66c | 148.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 836 | 61%510 W · 326 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rublev | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Rublev | 38c | 91.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rublev | 34c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Fils | 58c | 73.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 592 | 53.5%317 W · 275 L | +22.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Rublev | 65c | 52.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 2,135 | 56%1,195 W · 940 L | +41.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Fils | 59c | 50.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 348 | 47.1%164 W · 184 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Fils | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…36adbacked Fils | 36c | 48.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Rublev | 73c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Fils | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Fils | 67c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Filsthis page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur FilsArthur Fils won
- Rublev vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rublev vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Rublev (+1.5)Fils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.