Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Rublev (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c95018f367e6838fc1a4285ee715a8fe18f1024e8a7b8253bec1c9c7c1f394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Fils, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Fils | 46c | 5,523$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.81 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Rublev | 56c | 5,202$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.84 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Fils | 49c | 2,215$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.1 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…c8ecbacked Fils | 25c | 1,945$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.33 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Rublev | 54c | 1,531$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.8 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fils | 41c | 1,507$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.83 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Rublev | 58c | 1,466$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.32 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rublev | 54c | 1,345$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.3 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…7913backed Rublev | 54c | 1,309$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Rublev | 45c | 1,290$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.53 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rublev | 36c | 1,222$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.28 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…7d86backed Fils | 44c | 870$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.33 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Fils | 78c | 598.3$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.58 | 222 | 52.7%117 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Rublev | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895f…cfadbacked Rublev | 54c | 540.22$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.72 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Fils | 47c | 495.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.02 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Fils | 51c | 485.29$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.94 | 154 | 44.2%68 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…bf0bbacked Rublev | 45c | 448.32$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…eff1backed Fils | 73c | 404.99$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1b…67d3backed Fils | 45c | 381.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Rublev | 77c | 351.86$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.64 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…eed9backed Rublev | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Rublev | 51c | 300$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 364 | 35.2%128 W · 236 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Rublev | 32c | 299.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.92 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…640fbacked Rublev | 77c | 295.86$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.81 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Rublev | 53c | 286$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Fils | 42c | 263.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 305 | 30.8%94 W · 211 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Rublev | 58c | 236.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Rublev | 57c | 217.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.66 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Rublev | 77c | 191.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…b43fbacked Rublev | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Rublev | 58c | 178.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Rublev | 55c | 177.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Fils | 47c | 166.81$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…606dbacked Rublev | 27c | 139.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Rublev | 55c | 133.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Fils | 46c | 126.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Fils | 46c | 115.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…8d41backed Fils | 43c | 115.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Fils | 80c | 103.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Fils | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fils | 58c | 99.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…70ffbacked Fils | 77c | 97.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Fils | 58c | 89.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Rublev | 55c | 74.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Fils | 42c | 70.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…5fc0backed Rublev | 50c | 64.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Fils | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Fils | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rublev | 25c | 59.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Fils | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Fils | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Fils | 22c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…f8d4backed Fils | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Fils | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Fils | 54c | 48.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Fils | 43c | 47.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Rublev | 54c | 47.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…8762backed Rublev | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Rublev | 31c | 42.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 474 | 31.9%151 W · 323 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Fils | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Rublev | 53c | 40.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Rublev | 56c | 34.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Fils | 72c | 30.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Fils | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fils | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Rublev | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Rublev | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…0e6bbacked Fils | 80c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Rublev | 67c | 15.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Rublev (+1.5)this page
- Andrey Rublev vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur FilsArthur Fils won
- Rublev vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rublev vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs FilsFils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.