AI · resolved market
Will o3-mini be better than DeepSeek before March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a4798ee64e566de74d342577d1574e39399c235e2a4527d22cd91fc7a517eaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 79c | 5,070$4,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.45 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 4,599$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 54c | 1,946$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.93 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…665dbacked No | 28c | 1,437$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 717.03$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 71c | 699$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 67c | 685.79$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 17c | 660.41$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 612.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9c…09ddbacked No | 49c | 424.21$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 331.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 77c | 294$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 15c | 276.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 21c | 262.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.24 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 17c | 166.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.92 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 9c | 139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 73c | 136.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 17c | 124.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 16c | 113.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 35c | 99.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked No | 18c | 98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 15c | 81.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 25c | 77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…021bbacked No | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 56c | 32.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 45c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8b…fd9dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…078cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 73c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.