Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a6c91e3dcb002e5767ca47c6db0ced4b0da8745c7f4153220f7c9e43fdbe3e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Appalachian State Mountaineers, Marshall Thundering Herd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 50c | 10,668$5,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,339 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 5,948$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 3,650$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.44 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 2,974$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.88 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 45c | 1,673$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.36 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 1,388$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.88 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 33c | 900$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 45c | 852.55$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.9 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 779.89$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 748.39$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.2 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…59e4backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 594.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 45c | 521.25$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.36 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 61c | 495.88$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 45c | 426.28$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.45 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 75c | 397.38$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.03 | 343 | 43.4%149 W · 194 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 53c | 130.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 50c | 119.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 55c | 99.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 93.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 51c | 86.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 51c | 63.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…9b4cbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 50c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Appalachian State Mountaineers | 47c | 40.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Appalachian State Mountaineers | 53c | 39.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…32dcbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3.5)this page
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Appalachian State MountaineersMarshall Thundering Herd won
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 143.5Over won
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers: O/U 144.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.