Middle East · resolved market
U.S. military strike on Lebanon before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a7284db4e644f02d9251708ee4836c4097f6a8a47e578fb88c3e3196e276c0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed Yes | 3c | 12,337$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.34 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 6c | 6,020$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 4,245$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 4,200$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 3,405$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 3,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 2,274$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…8d22backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,499$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88af…cd83backed Yes | 7c | 1,454$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,376$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 5c | 959.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 6c | 777$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 60 | 0%0 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ce…b599backed Yes | 5c | 579.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 3c | 558.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1b5abacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…3b94backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.