World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab036d9e058809619d88b9f614aa2e4d55f51359a7ab09bf9dfbbcddbcca2a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 160.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 137.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 129.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 120.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 81.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 74.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…8b90backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 77c | 52.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…8058backed No | 77c | 38.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 35.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 76c | 23.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedcd…9cb0backed No | 71c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed No | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.