Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab663b222d222cf30463691bea1dec7aae2f5e74d78ba9072896e82bf5b87d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 293.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 12c | 255.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 24c | 154.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 77c | 154.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 151.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 19c | 123$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 23c | 91.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 77c | 82.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7c…8b83backed Yes | 26c | 76.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 75.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 66.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 18c | 65.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 77c | 41.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 40.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 40.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba8…aeadbacked No | 80c | 37.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…f122backed No | 77c | 35.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 33.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0a…d177backed No | 77c | 30.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 79c | 25.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 22.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 78c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 13.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 283 | 69.3%196 W · 87 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.