Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea4459ea81eb199fa0612c69449628c7a570efb15a29c30ef24c2a3989a4720b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 6c | 500.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 29c | 356.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 38c | 340$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 289.57$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 24c | 188.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 185.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 183.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 70c | 155.77$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 118.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 116.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 26c | 115.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 77c | 113.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 110.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 62c | 107.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 32c | 98.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 35c | 91.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 80.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 78.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 26c | 76.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 67.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 20c | 57.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 28c | 54.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 72c | 52.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 21c | 51.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 26c | 49.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 44.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 40.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 38.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 269 | 69.5%187 W · 82 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…8633backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 67c | 18.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 17.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.