Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7776d8317edf9aa264f13dc544ad0e3d943859629ee60a1e5c4e36f050fda0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 79c | 778.33$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.64 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 78c | 763.23$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.84 | 247 | 68.8%170 W · 77 L | +25.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 18c | 509.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.2 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 13c | 462.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 438.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 19c | 382.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.88 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed Yes | 74c | 329.88$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.7 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 36c | 295.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 288.12$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 53c | 279$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 6c | 278.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 43c | 265.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.92 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 264.74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 53c | 253.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 237.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 34c | 221.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 221$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.8 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 72c | 206.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 66c | 198.04$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 196.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.61 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 190.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.05 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 15c | 175.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 7c | 174.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…945ebacked Yes | 13c | 154.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 153.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed No | 36c | 150.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 39c | 144.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 141.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 80c | 140.73$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 139.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.37 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 11c | 131.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed Yes | 65c | 118.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 60c | 117.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 26c | 111.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 18c | 109$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 98.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 16c | 91.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 77c | 91.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 47c | 90.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 20c | 87.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 19c | 77.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 71.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 614 | 21.8%134 W · 480 L | -25.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 70.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 68.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 63c | 68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 32c | 63.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 62.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 57.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 80c | 57.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 56.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 56.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 19c | 55.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 275 | 65.5%180 W · 95 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 50c | 49.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 25c | 49.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 42.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -12.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 256 | 39.8%102 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 28c | 38.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 64c | 36.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 35.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 76c | 34.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1,710 | 60.8%1,039 W · 671 L | -22.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 24.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2a…a44dbacked Yes | 72c | 21.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 69c | 17.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 78c | 17.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 71c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.