IPO · resolved market
Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $950M and $1.0B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ac117568941bd6222a406c875f35c8e82588234e8556935a22177fab1692b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43f6…bb1ebacked Yes | 45c | 946$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 55c | 568$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed Yes | 16c | 560$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 3c | 556.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 16c | 540$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed No | 55c | 378$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 3c | 338.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 67c | 277$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked Yes | 33c | 277$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 16c | 134$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 28c | 47.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $950M and $1.0B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp. not IPO before April 2026?No won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $750M and $800M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $850M and $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $900M and $950M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be greater than $1.0B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be less than $750M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.