Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae1be8b4f319a2828c1f24601631651840bf011b6b22e73dce8e17f2d087109
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1851…7016backed Under | 44c | 2,289$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 57c | 1,001$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.62 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 41c | 689.66$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 602.38$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 326.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 59c | 320.65$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced1…280ebacked Over | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 59c | 265$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 46c | 212.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 200.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…bedabacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 146 | 30.1%44 W · 102 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 55c | 141$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 56c | 139$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 56c | 139$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 86.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 25c | 84.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 59c | 79.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 75c | 70.16$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 56c | 63.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 56c | 59.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 62c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…0098backed Over | 56c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 54c | 42.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 42c | 41.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 58c | 33.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 26.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 2.5this page
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: FC Twente O/U 2.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: O/U 5.5Over won
- FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda vs. FC Twente: Team to AdvanceFC Twente won
- Spread: FC Twente (-1.5)FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda won
- Spread: FC Twente (-2.5)FC DAC 1904 Dunajská Streda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.