Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af148ee8b2ff297e337232fe0307bd0c7277a8aee709271e48ecf0dcca13f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 6,893$3,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,359.4 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 51c | 5,765$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.66 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 38c | 3,000$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.65 | 376 | 41.5%156 W · 220 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 53c | 2,291$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 2,089$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.75 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,850$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.86 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 53c | 820.89$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.82 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 220.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 53c | 190.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 49c | 175.59$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 167.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 47c | 134.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Under | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…61a6backed Under | 53c | 71.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…6b9ebacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 76c | 46.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 54c | 44.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 53c | 33.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 278 | 56.1%156 W · 122 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Over | 50c | 29.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 47c | 28.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…6ff5backed Over | 48c | 22.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5Under won
- Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.