Olympics · resolved market
Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b145d6391aeeb77ad11f1e81d6130743c55b8cc5714ecd2fceb469f95a989fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 12c | 413.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 7c | 378.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…97a4backed Yes | 7c | 359.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 6c | 262.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes | 6c | 200.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…8858backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 17c | 139$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6820…b82bbacked Yes | 9c | 108.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…5f72backed Yes | 20c | 100.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.