TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,001 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x033f…618ebacked Yes25c894.28$228 inLost-$228.014641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes28c505$141 inLost-$140.592119%4 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Yes54c448.11$240 inLost-$2401457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed No79c426.51$339 inWon+$87.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes19c325.87$61 inLost-$60.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-61.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0b…17c3backed Yes14c290$41 inLost-$40.6238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes16c220.11$34 inLost-$34.376942%29 W · 40 L+7.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes16c206.12$33 inLost-$32.973823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes27c146.46$39 inLost-$39.172860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+17.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes16c118.43$19 inLost-$19.11837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec33…fb5ebacked Yes26c117.21$31 inLost-$3130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed Yes26c100$26 inLost-$265242.3%22 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89c6…7961backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$14100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec3…0cf1backed No46c93.48$43 inWon+$50.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes27c79.18$21 inLost-$21.255341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes24c69.87$17 inLost-$17.058237.8%31 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No69c56$39 inWon+$17.243467.6%23 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8f6…d2c9backed Yes28c50$14 inLost-$14911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked No46c49.46$23 inWon+$26.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6325…cfaabacked No65c49.39$32 inWon+$17.341181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No65c45.17$30 inWon+$15.6211858.5%69 W · 49 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc721…1b8fbacked No77c39$30 inWon+$8.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No72c32.5$23 inWon+$9.15151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed No72c22$16 inWon+$6.064020%8 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No75c13.7$10 inWon+$3.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.