Olympics · resolved market
Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3457ba5fd4626db2e53b6206791b98ebe9f409530b0996598f0219981e4a4265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,174$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.48 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 62c | 1,072$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…af49backed Yes | 65c | 973.85$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 62c | 925.55$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 60c | 870.59$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.38 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 53c | 739.66$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d8…969ebacked Yes | 64c | 623.92$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bf…5dd9backed Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…07c2backed No | 51c | 536.63$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 498.41$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 62c | 485.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 65c | 472.04$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 33c | 461.88$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.33 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…97a4backed No | 25c | 335.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…53cebacked Yes | 61c | 334.45$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 63c | 319.03$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…0df3backed No | 7c | 303.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 53c | 285.71$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed No | 42c | 243.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 45c | 229.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…0133backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked Yes | 57c | 213$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…e7c8backed Yes | 79c | 207.74$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed No | 39c | 198.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 39c | 197.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…fec7backed Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…1605backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 39c | 153.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 59c | 151.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 39c | 145.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…cebfbacked Yes | 55c | 127.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…2469backed No | 38c | 100.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed No | 69c | 100.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…aa41backed No | 71c | 85.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…8b6cbacked Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…13d6backed Yes | 52c | 76.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed Yes | 47c | 68.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bec…5311backed Yes | 59c | 67.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 42c | 57.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 36c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 35c | 54.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…16e7backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 67c | 49.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…d66bbacked Yes | 62c | 48.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22d…5dbcbacked Yes | 51c | 43.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 31c | 38.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b0…afd6backed No | 44c | 33.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 50c | 30.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…d8edbacked Yes | 55c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…1637backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…63bfbacked Yes | 62c | 20.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d23…8184backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…9cdfbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…5562backed No | 79c | 13.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Austria win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Germany win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Italy win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Norway win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Sweden win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 4 X 6km Relay at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.