Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-12-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b255bfcf5cbd2dd14defa2bdf7339a43dc0c889856f6ccfa73c44f92ccb163a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 62c | 3,079$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.62 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 2,488$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.73 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 57c | 1,974$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.82 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 1,536$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.26 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 41c | 1,113$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.94 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 788$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.91 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 787.53$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.82 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 710.53$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.94 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 598.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 3c | 456.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.64 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +12.8wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +246%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Yes | 41c | 399.9$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.96 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 20c | 343.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 58c | 316.34$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.69 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…7acbbacked No | 58c | 208$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f07…8ecbbacked Yes | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 39c | 200.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016b…bc7cbacked Yes | 42c | 194$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…3958backed No | 58c | 192$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 22c | 165.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Yes | 42c | 159$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc8…58e2backed Yes | 41c | 140$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 26c | 135.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7082backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 56cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 66c | 85.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed No | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 42c | 70.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…82a3backed Yes | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…45c4backed Yes | 45c | 53.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked No | 58c | 34.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378c…4f9bbacked Yes | 42c | 30.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heracles Almelo win on 2025-12-06?this page
- Will Heracles Almelo vs. Telstar 1963 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Telstar 1963 win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.