Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b293e7d30dd5d74f21ff33623c84baaf785954ac4d02f5dc05ca94da7bf7c60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 60c | 430.39$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.75 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 337.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…4407backed No | 27c | 274.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 244.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 205.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 37c | 182.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 178.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 9c | 176.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 71c | 165.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.34 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 160.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 53c | 157.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 76c | 151.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 32c | 129.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 126.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 66c | 105.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 30c | 99.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 64c | 99.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 63c | 93.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…7d1abacked Yes | 36c | 92.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 86.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 86.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 57c | 83.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 76c | 81.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 62c | 80.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 20c | 76.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 71.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…5bf0backed No | 74c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 32c | 70.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 67.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 67.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 66.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 65.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 58c | 64.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 26c | 64.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 64.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 62.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 71c | 57.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…9422backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 65c | 54.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 54.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 40c | 54.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 54.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…7222backed Yes | 36c | 53.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6029…231abacked Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 50.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 50.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 49.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 29c | 47.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 41c | 40.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…c663backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 64c | 38.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 72c | 38.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 29c | 36.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 35.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 34.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2993…99b7backed Yes | 45c | 32.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 42c | 30.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 68c | 30.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 71c | 28.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…6befbacked Yes | 36c | 27.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41c…4859backed Yes | 71c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 21.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 73c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…0ee6backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 19.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 18.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 62c | 18.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 76c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.